By: Jonah Sprinkel

What a week it has been for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Since ringing in the Ryan Saunders era with a thrilling win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Wolves have gone 1-2 with a win over New Orleans and the losses coming against Dallas and Philadelphia. The blowout loss to the Sixers, and specifically Jimmy Butler, left a bitter taste in the mouth as the team appeared to have forgotten their effort in Minneapolis. Giving up nearly 150 points to any team is embarrassing. But when it comes against a player like Butler and his tumultuous history with the Wolves? The English language doesn’t have the words to describe how demeaning that kind of loss is. Though injuries have and will continue to hamper this team, consistency in on-court passion and effort would be a large step forward for this squad. It may potentially help secure the head coaching gig for Saunders as well.
 
What: Spurs @ Wolves
When: 7:00 PM CT
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis
Where to watch: ESPN
Where to listen: 830 AM WCCO
 
What to watch

Saunders’ defense: Tom Thibodeau’s defense left much to be desired this season. Through four games, the interim head coach’s has left even more to be desired. With nearly a 120-defensive rating, the Wolves are the 28th ranked defense over that period. It’s early in Saunders’ regime and the Robert Covington injury has gauged the core of the Wolves defense, but the quality of defense is unacceptable for any team except those who are tanking.

Spurs’ offense: The Spurs attempt the fewest threes of any team in the NBA. This bodes well for the Wolves as they allow the highest opponent three-point percentage in the league. However, the Spurs also possess the seventh highest offensive rating, 113.4. The other issue for the Wolves is an issue that doesn’t need introduction; their constant struggles with big men. Over the last 10 games, LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging nearly 26 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists and shooting 58.3 percent from the field. The Wolves have their work cut out for them.

The lack of Tyus and RoCo: Tyus Jones will be spending the next few days in a walking boot while Robert Covington still doesn’t have a timetable for his return. Both players are two of the Wolves better contributors through high basketball IQ and play that doesn’t always appear in the box score. Of all the Wolves five-man lineups from this season, five of the top six lineups in net points feature either Jones, Covington or both. The team simply plays better ball with these two in the lineup.

Projected Starters

Minnesota: PG Jeff Teague, SG Josh Okogie, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Taj Gibson, C Karl-Anthony Towns

San Antonio: PG Derrick White, SG Bryn Forbes, SF DeMar DeRozan, PF Rudy Gay, C LaMarcus Aldridge

Injury Report

Minnesota: Tyus Jones - Out, Robert Covington - Out

San Antonio: Dejounte Murray (Torn ACL) - Out

Prediction

Though the Wolves are favored by 1.5 tonight, I don't expect them to win. This team has continuously struggled in primetime and Towns has always had issues with LaMarcus Aldridge. Wolves fall, 114-108.

By: Jonah Sprinkel

No matter the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves are always riding a rollercoaster of emotion. Five days ago, they fired the coach and president of basketball operations who led them to their first playoff appearance since dinosaurs roamed the land surrounding Target Center. The team promoted Ryan Saunders, then assistant and son of the great Flip Saunders, to interim head coach. The Wolves squad responded to this move with one of their more engaged and passionate performances on the season, gifting the 32-year-old coach his first win ever. Did I mention that Ryan ran his dad’s favorite play to start the game? Yeah, you’re right, it is a little dusty in here. The younger Saunders hopes to create his first ever win streak as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks come to Minneapolis tonight.
 
What: Mavs @ Wolves
When: 7:00 PM CT
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis
Where to watch: Fox Sports North
Where to listen: 830 AM WCCO

What to watch for
 
The return of Rose: Derrick Rose is returning from injury tonight. The Wolves score nearly six more points per 100 possessions when Rose is in the game versus when he’s sitting, a jump from 111.8 to 117.3. If the Wolves were to post a 117-offensive rating over an entire season they would be the best offense of all time by a significant margin. Despite his “bench role”, most Rose’s minutes have come with the starters. With Saunders likely going to a nine- or 10-man rotation on a regular basis, there may be a few twists to the regular substitution patterns. It should be interesting to see how this trend continues with Saunders in charge.

Free throws: On Tuesday against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Wolves attempted 40 free throws. This has only happened one other time this year – interestingly enough, it came against Dallas in October. NBA team’s average 23 attempts a game and the Wolves average nearly 25. In a game which the Wolves won by two, every free throw mattered. Moving forward, the team won’t have this kind of offensive cushion. What will Ryan Saunders do to make up the difference?

Andrew Wiggins: Nobody look, but Andrew Wiggins may be at the beginning of a hot streak. Over the last four games the Canadian is averaging 29 points, almost five rebounds, three assists and only one and a half turnovers on a 45/30/78 split. The shooing split may be a bit ugly, but it’s a vast improvement over his 23 games before the uptick where he posted a split of 39/32/71. One other thing of note, Wiggins had not attempted more than 10 free throws a game once this season until he did it in both of the last two games. He finished those games with 28 and 40 points. In other words, if Wiggins doesn’t want to go to the charity stripe, someone should put him in a grocery cart and push him there themselves.

Projected Starters

Minnesota: PG Jeff Teague, SG Josh Okogie, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Taj Gibson, C Karl-Anthony Towns

Dallas: PG Luka Doncic, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Harrison Barnes, PF Maxi Kleber, C DeAndre Jordan

Injury report

Minnesota: Derrick Rose - Probable, Robert Covington - OUT

Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki – Probable, Dennis Smith Jr. – OUT

Prediction

With the Wolves favored by five, Derrick Rose coming back from injury and the emotions of the Saunders win still flowing throughout the organization, the team should win tonight, 112-108.

By: Dan Slaubaugh

Do you remember when it was assumed the Wolves keeping Ryan Saunders on staff with the Tom Thibodeau administration was a PR move by the organization trying to save a little face after a heartbreaking end to the Flip Saunders era?

Well, two and a half years later, we’ve found out it wasn’t. Rather, part of a long-term plan Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor had for the organization.

32 years young, “Lil ‘Flip” is the youngest (interim!) head coach in the NBA -- and by a wide margin. The next youngest coach is Luke Walton at 38. For added context on Saunders’ youth, 42 active NBA players — enough to field three full teams — are older than Saunders. That includes three on his own team’s roster: Taj Gibson, Luol Deng, and Anthony Tolliver.

The timing of Saunders’ promotion is odd. The Wolves were coming off back-to-back blowout victories and Karl-Anthony Towns is playing the best basketball of his career. However, after reports suggesting the organization feared season ticket renewals would plummet with Thibodeau still at the helm, this looks to be just as much of a business move than a basketball one.

​And as KSTP and 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reminds us all, the Saunders' have a history of dominating the business side.

​There were plenty of things that led to Thibodeau’s downfall (Jimmy Butler saga, Andrew Wiggins’ regression, incompetent defense), and his dismissal from the organization was a long time coming. It was a step in the right direction for an organization weighed down by negative energy. But this is still an organization ran by Glen Taylor. That, combined with additional information Wolfson has been feeding us on the Twitter machine, and I am once again concerned this will be a flawed process from Taylor and the Wolves.

The tweets:

If you believe what Wolfson says, which I usually do, it sounds like (as of right now) the feeling in house is Saunders is more likely to be back as a lead assistant than the head coach next season. The tweets also suggest Taylor may have the head coaching gig saved for recently-terminated, former Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, who has ties to the Timberwolves and Taylor.

​While I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed to Hoiberg as the Timberwolves next head coach, it’d be foolish if Taylor’s plan is driven by giving Saunders experience as head coach but without the chance to retain that position. In other words, I like the Timberwolves decision to promote Saunders, as long as they haven’t shut the door on him becoming the official head coach next season.
​
My primary concern would be stability with the players. Too much change is not good, and the youth of this team has seen more change than nearly the entire association. Players can’t keep switching coaches left and right. You can’t tell me that four coaches in five seasons haven’t stunted the growth of Andrew Wiggins’ development and that the players would be thrilled to walk into training camp with yet another brand new face, even if he was a better alternative than Thibodeau.

If Taylor simply isn’t overly impressed with what he sees from Saunders, I think it’s fine and perhaps even smart to bring in a new coach and move Saunders back into an assistant role. But that should not be the predetermined plan.

Concerning Hoiberg, I can already see him waiting to see how the Saunders tryout plays out before he takes another job. He would love coaching in Minnesota because he would feel safe with an owner who is familiar with him, and he wouldn't have to feel like like he was coaching for his job on a nightly basis after a bad situation in Chicago. When it comes down to it, Taylor simply shouldn't have a large say in the next head coach given he’ll likely already know who he wants, lacking a clear mind when interviewing other qualified candidates.

Not all teams are blessed with coaching stability amidst a prolonged rebuild, but the important part is finding the right coach for the next competitive version of the roster. Without a president of basketball operations and stability at general manager, that leaves Taylor in charge of finding that coach.

If you’ve paid any attention to Timberwolves basketball over the last decade and a half, you’ll know that has not proven to yield good results.

Glen, give Ryan a legitimate shot at head coach. That’s all I ask.

By: Jonah Sprinkel

It’s not often that a team in the National Basketball Association trades away their franchise player. It’s even rarer for a team to execute such a deal in the middle of the regular season. Logically, it makes sense to assume there would be an offensive regression for the team that deals away a franchise player. The four most recent and prominent examples of this kind of trade are the Minnesota Timberwolves and Jimmy Butler in 2018, the Sacramento Kings and DeMarcus Cousins in 2017, Carmelo Anthony and the Denver Nuggets in 2011, and Pau Gasol and the Memphis Grizzlies in 2008. But first, how are NBA offenses measured and tracked?

Three of the more commonly referenced statistics when measuring a team’s offensive production are points per 100 possessions, pace, and PER. Points per 100 possessions tracks how many points a team would score if given 100 offensive possessions of the ball, a measurement of a team’s efficiency. Pace measures the offensive possessions a team averages in a game, useful for understanding how quickly a team plays relative to other teams. PER, or player efficiency rating, is a standardized, per-minute grade of a player’s production, with said standard being 15.0.

A decade ago, Pau Gasol was traded by the Memphis Grizzlies to the Los Angeles Lakers. The Grizzlies were struggling at the time and felt it was in their best interest to start fresh by trading Gasol. Before the trade, the Grizzlies were scoring 104.5 points for every 100 possessions of the basketball. At the time, the team ranked 16th league-wide. They also averaged 95.82 possessions per game, good for seventh in the NBA. After the trade, the Grizzlies offense dropped to 103.2 points per 100 possessions (27th in the league), and 97.02 possessions per game (fifth in the league). The team got faster, but their offensive efficiency suffered.

Before Carmelo Anthony was traded by the Denver Nuggets to the New York Knicks in 2011, the Nuggets held the NBA’s best offense with 112 points per 100 possessions. They also ranked third league-wide for possessions with 96.16 a game. After Anthony’s departure, Denver dropped to sixth in the league in both categories on 110.9 points per 100 possessions and 95.96 possessions per game. While the team maintained a nearly identical pace, their production fell off very slightly.

The DeMarcus Cousins trade is one of the more dramatic stories as the news of his trade broke moments after he stepped off the floor from the NBA All-Star game in 2017, traded by the Sacramento Kings to the New Orleans Pelicans. The Kings felt it was time to move on from Cousins, a central figure in many of the teams issues. At the time of the trade, the Kings ranked 18th in the league offensively with 107.0 points per 100 possessions. They were ranked 27th in pace with 95.05 possessions per game. Once Cousins was gone the Kings dropped to the 24th best offense with 105.6 points per 100 possessions. However, they became a faster team with the 16th ranked 96.38 possessions per game. The Kings demonstrated the largest increase in pace, however their offensive production dropped.

Jimmy Butler was traded by the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Philadelphia 76ers on Nov. 12. Butler’s trade was controversial due to ongoing issues with teammates and team management. Before trading Butler, the Wolves owned the league’s 17th ranked offense with 107.7 points per 100 possessions and had a pace of 103.14, ninth best in the NBA. In Butler’s absence, the Wolves have climbed to 12th ranked offense with 110.6 points per 100 possessions while becoming the 16th ranked team with a 100.11 pace. They are the only team to score more points on fewer possessions since trading their franchise player.

What sets the Timberwolves apart from the other three teams in terms of overall offensive improvement? Seven or eight players make up a standard rotation for an NBA team, though Tom Thibodeau would argue the ideal number is five. Memphis’ eight had an average PER of 13.91. Denver’s average was 15.68, Sacramento’s was 12.78 and Minnesota’s was 16.11. All averages are sans their franchise player and include players traded to these teams. Though this metric does have  its flaws, Minnesota has the best eight players of these four teams. The increase in pace can be attributed to Thibodeau and Saunders, though mostly Thibodeau simply because he's coached more games this season, utilizing the strengths of the players available.

It's been an odd year for the Wolves. The Butler drama kicked off the season and left an ominous taste in the mouths of those observing. Then their head coach and president of basketball operations was fired mid-season immediately following a blowout victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. That's not to say it's been all bad. Derrick Rose is a fan-favorite comeback story. Ryan Saunders has provided the "Minnesota boy" angle that every local adores. Karl-Anthony Towns is an All-Star for the second year in a row. The addition of Robert Covington looks to be a needle moving acquisition, provided he can stay healthy. Finally, the Timberwolves are better off, at least statistically, without Jimmy Butler.

By: Jonah Sprinkel

Last Sunday, the Minnesota Timberwolves may have begun the process of righting the ship with their 114-112 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Just before that, the team went one for six, including a winless four game road trip. For a team that had, or may still have, playoff aspirations, the Timberwolves must take advantage of the opportunities to make up ground when they arise. The next three games against Chicago, Atlanta and Miami are a prime example of an opportunity for this, but the Wolves must take it one game at a time. First up, the Bulls.

What: Wolves @ Bulls
When: 7:00 PM CT
Where: United Center
Where to watch: Fox Sports North
Where to listen:  830 AM WCCO


What to watch for

The worst offense in the league: The Chicago Bulls cannot put the ball in the hoop Their best scorer, Zach LaVine, is currently out with an ankle issue. Outside of him, Lauri Markkanen is leader in points per game with just over 17. The team ranks last in the league in offensive rating, trailing the 29th ranked team by over 2 points per 100 possession. No other team trails the team ranked above them by more than 1.25 points per 100 possessions. If the Wolves can’t slow down this team, I give up.

Point guard injuries: Both Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose missed time with ankle injuries. The duo continues to be listed on the injury report, though Teague is expected to miss much more time than Rose. So long as both remain sidelined, or even anything less than healthy, the point guard position will prove to be an exposable weakness for the Wolves, regardless of the opposition.  

KAT’s slump: Karl-Anthony Towns is and will continue to be the focal point of the Wolves offense. When the best player on a team goes into a slump, the team will be hard pressed to come up with a win. Through the last three games, in which the Wolves have gone 1-2, the Kentucky product is averaging nearly 16 points, six rebounds, four assists and a block with a 38/21/82 shooting split. The team was lucky to come out of OKC with a win, more lines like this from Towns and the Wolves will need more of that luck.
 

Projected starters

Minnesota: PG Tyus Jones, SG Andrew Wiggins, SF Robert Covington, PF Taj Gibson, C Karl-Anthony Towns

Chicago: PG Ryan Arcidiacono, SG Kris Dunn, SF Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen, C Wendell Carter
 

Injury Report

Minnesota: Jeff Teague – OUT (ankle), Derrick Rose – Day-to-Day (ankle)

Chicago: Zach LaVine – Questionable (ankle)
 

Prediction
The Timberwolves should be able to build on their most recent win and create a two-game winning streak. The Bull simply don’t have the talent to keep up with the Timmberwolves. At least that is the hope.